Bets

When to promote a hypothesis

You can only promote a hypothesis that is in the Supported state. This is enforced — not a convention. The requirement exists because a Bet represents a commitment of team resources, and that commitment should be grounded in evidence you've actually collected, not optimism.

Before promoting, review:

• Is the evidence strong enough? Check the evidence strength score. Below 40 is a yellow flag.
• Are the tests complete? All active tests should be concluded.
• Is the metric clearly defined? You'll need it for predicted impact.

“A bet without evidence is just a guess wearing a framework. The promotion step is where that distinction is enforced.”

RICE scoring

When you promote a hypothesis to a bet, Findry calculates a RICE score automatically from four fields:

• Reach — how many users will this affect in the next quarter? Use a number, not a range.
• Impact — how much will it move the needle for each user? Use the 0.25 / 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 scale (minimal / low / medium / high / massive).
• Confidence — how confident are you in the Reach and Impact estimates? Expressed as a percentage. Your hypothesis evidence strength is pre-filled here — you can override it.
• Effort — how many person-months of work? Include design, engineering, and QA.

Formula: RICE = (Reach × Impact × Confidence) / Effort. The RICE score is for internal prioritization — it appears on the Bets board, where you can sort by it. It's not shown on external Pulses.

Structured predicted impact

The predicted impact field is the contract between the Bet and the Outcome. It has five required sub-fields:

• Metric — the specific metric you expect to move (autocompleted from your project's metric library)
• Direction — increase or decrease
• Magnitude — the expected size of the change (number + unit: percent or absolute)
• Timeframe — how many days after shipping before you expect to see the movement
• Confidence interval (optional) — the low/high range you'd consider a win

This structure is not bureaucracy — it's what makes the Outcome useful. When you log an outcome and connect your analytics, Findry computes the variance between what you predicted and what actually happened. Without a structured prediction, there's nothing to compare against.

Locking a bet

Once a bet is in flight — meaning your team has started building it — lock it. Locking prevents the RICE score, predicted impact, and linked hypothesis from being edited. It's a signal that this is no longer a planning artifact; it's a commitment. Locked bets are visually distinct on the board and in Pulses. To lock: open the bet, click Lock bet, confirm. Unlocking requires admin permission and leaves an audit trail.

Pushing to Jira or Linear

If your Jira or Linear integration is connected, you can push a bet directly to your tracker. Findry supports four artifact kinds — choose the one that matches how your team works:

• Epic + children (Jira/Linear) — creates an Epic in your tracker with child issues scaffolded from the bet's sub-tasks
• Single issue — creates one ticket linked back to the bet
• Linear Project — creates a full Linear project
• Jira Initiative (Jira Advanced Roadmaps) — creates an initiative with Epic children

After pushing, Findry monitors the linked artifact for a ship date. When Linear or Jira marks it as done, Findry detects the ship event and prompts you to log an Outcome.